Winners and losers of the pandemic in the province of Chaco based on administrative data

Abstract

This document focuses on aspects of employment and business dynamics for the province of Chaco, based on original tax and social security administrative databases. Data are formed from different sources, including the Argentine Integrated Pension System, administrative filings of the gross income tax (sales tax) at the company 5-digit activity level in the province, and complementary databases and classifications. This is a contribution in itself, both for the potential of applications and burden involved in its preparation. Based on these data, I illustrate dynamic heterogeneities based on aggregate sectoral and group indicators, moving to varying degrees of disaggregation and interactions, in order to illustrate relevant segmentations. The application covers the period 2016-2021 with particular emphasis on the effects of the pandemic shock. I carry out the analysis in steps. First, I apply growth incidence analysis by firm size (gross sales and number of employees) and fiscal categories. Then, I explore the dynamics of firm entries and exits, transitions, based on tax and sector categories. Regarding employment, the asymmetric effects by age cohorts are illustrated, with a higher contraction in young cohorts. Regarding firm-activity, I present heterogeneous adjustments patters based on categories associated with location and firm scopes. Segments that group largest scales, vulnerable activities, and formal categories with more constraints to evade taxes, on average, contracted most; those segments with interprovincial activities expanded. The largest expansions occurred in companies with main fiscal location in other jurisdictions. Some local activities, such as those associated with logistics services and electronic commerce, show expansions in sales income and employment; instead, contractions in employment are observed in retail business activities, rentals, among others. The methodology presented is exploratory.